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FloraMapTM
is an algorithm for mapping the distribution of plants and
other organisms in the wild. It works on the premise that
we know nothing about the organism other than the geographic
location of a calibration set of collection points. From these
we fit a climate probability model. This approach has had
considerable success, and is being used widely. However, it
has some major drawbacks for many applications: it requires
a calibration set, it only works on climate, and it has not
been used successfully on cultivated crops where the farmer
alters the environment.
So, what do we do for those who ask the simple question,
"Where else in the world is like my plot of land?"
We have no calibration set. We do not know what species we
are considering. We do not have an algorithm for predicting
the probabilities of relevant soil characteristics. The question
may be simple, but the answer is not. Homologue has been developed
to cope with the complexities of this simple question. Homologue
uses the basic algorithm of FloraMap, generalized to fit a
range of generic species designated by the user. It incorporates
statistical probability calculations for the mapping of soil
characteristics. If we know where else in the world is like
my plot of land, we can infer, from the agricultural practices
there, what may be applicable to my plot.
Homologue also can be used in the reverse sense. If we find
an instance of the cultivation of an interesting species,
we may look at where else it might be used. If we have a number
of these instances, we might look for an environmental envelope,
or "Cloud" as James Cock terms it, where the species
might fit. Homologue therefore allows the combination of the
probability maps for various sites that circumvents the problem
that FloraMap has with small sample sizes.
This version of Homologue is the Beta demonstration release.
It has been specially crafted to give an idea of the final
operational capacity of the full release version that will
work with the 30 arc-second climate grids. It is designed
to load as much data as possible into RAM in order to speed
operation. It is designed as a "What if?" tool,
and we hope that scientists will use it in that exploratory
way. Sit with it, and try out ideas to see if they fit with
the world and your conception of it. It should be fast enough
to play with. In its present state, it does not try to prove
or disprove hypotheses, unless you are perspicacious enough
to find a way to do it.
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